Key Messages
An extensive regional scale crop failure is expected in Southern Africa following an extremely dry cropping season. Consequently, the current regional cereal deficit of 7.9 million tonnes will increase steeply and unprecedented food price movements will continue through to the next harvest season. This will aggravate the food and nutrition security, health and HIV situation in the region.
There are early signs of deterioration of nutrition conditions in the region with acute malnutrition increasing unusually in Zimbabwe, Southern Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique. There is also an upsurge in infectious diseases (mainly water-borne) in Lesotho, Swaziland and Tanzania resulting mainly from the deterioration of water quality. Water shortages have been reported to be disrupting provision of health services affecting access to treatment and disrupting HIV and TB services
Decline in food access (both in quantity and quality) is likely to reduce HIV treatment adherence, as confirmed by anecdotal evidence, thereby exacerbating already emerging drug resistance. This update therefore gives a special focus on the implications of the El Niño on nutrition security and HIV.
About 29.9 million people (including 14 million in South Africa) in the region are affected by the poor rain season resulting from the 2015/2016 El Niño event, and this figure is likely to increase. In light of this concerning situation, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) convened a special meeting on El Niño on 25-26th February to discuss short, medium and long-term measures to address the impacts of El Niño on communities which are outlined in the report.